The age structure in 1897 showed a typical picture of a society almost unaffected by the demographic transition, with a high proportion of children and adolescents (about half of the population), and a small proportion of those living to older ages. In the future, the tragic history of the twentieth century significantly changed the appearance of the age and sex pyramid, which is a vivid characteristic of the situation and, at the same time, the “imprinted demographic history” of the country.
The population aged 68–69 years (ie, those born in 1933–1934 during a decline in fertility and high child mortality due to) is much smaller than in neighboring age groups. In the second half of the 30s of the last century, demographic processes somewhat stabilized: this is evidenced by the large number of people living at the age of 63–65 at the beginning of 1998 (that is, those born in 1937–1939).
The next “landslide” decline in the birth rate falls on 1942–1945, as a result of which the age and sex pyramid of 2002 has the strongest “scar” at the age of 57–59 years. Generations of the war years of birth began to form families in the second half of the 60s of the twentieth century, which caused another (with a minimum number of births in 1968). In turn, those born in the late 1960s marry in the early 1990s, causing a new decline in fertility, further exacerbated by the economic crisis and declining living standards.
The age pyramids of the urban and rural population of Russia are in many ways similar, which is not surprising given their common socio-demographic history. Nevertheless, there are differences, which reflect the peculiarities of the urbanization process in Russia and differences in the reproductive behavior of urban and rural residents. Rural fertility has always been higher than urban, and therefore the share of children in the rural population is higher than in the urban. At the same time, migration from the countryside to the city affects, first of all, the working age, and their washing out leads to the fact that the share of people of working age in the countryside is lower, and the share of the elderly is higher than in the city.
The last decade has brought about some changes in the ratio of the age profiles of urban and rural residents. In particular, in 1989 the average age was higher among the rural population, in 2002 - among the urban. This is due to a certain rejuvenation of the able-bodied part of the rural population, which, in turn, is explained by migration trends that are not quite usual for Russia in the twentieth century: the influx of migrants to the countryside in the 1990s from neighboring countries.
Regional differences in the age and sex structure of the population are determined by differences in the natural and mechanical movement of the population.
Age-sex pyramids- a graphical representation of the distribution of the population by sex and age, used to characterize the sex and age composition of the population.
The age-sex composition of the population represents the ratio of age-sex groups - aggregates of people of the same age. This is the main element of the age structure of the population. Depending on the objectives of the study, there are one-year and enlarged age groups: five- and ten-year-olds. However, larger age groups are also used to assess general structural changes.
Age-sex pyramids are diagrams in which the number of people of each age (or their share in the population) is depicted by a horizontal bar of a certain scale. The bars are arranged one above the other in order of increasing age values, on the left side of the diagram for men, on the right for women. Age-sex pyramids are usually built according to one-year or five-year age groups, and sometimes also according to ten-year groups. However, the age and sex pyramids, built according to large age groups, do not reveal the detailed characteristics of the age and gender composition of the population.
The composition of the age-sex structure of the population is primarily the result of the evolution of population reproduction. The type of population reproduction, formed by the processes of fertility and mortality in the present and past periods, determines the ratio of the population of different age groups.
Age structures
The Swedish statistician and demographer A.-G. Sundberg proposed to distinguish three types of population age structures: progressive, stationary and regressive.
- Progressive type characterized by a high proportion of children and a low proportion of the older generation in the entire population. Its formation is based on an extended type of reproduction. The age pyramid has the shape of a triangle, the base of which depends on the magnitude of the birth rate.
- At stationary type, which is based on a simple type of reproduction, the age pyramid is bell-shaped with an almost balanced proportion of children and seniors.
- The narrowed type of reproduction leads to the formation regressive type, whose age pyramid is shaped like an urn. It is characterized by a relatively high proportion of elderly and old people and a low proportion of children.
The formation of the age structure of the population is greatly influenced by wars, as a result of which, firstly, there is a decline in the population of draft age, and secondly, a sharp decline in the birth rate. At the regional and sometimes at the national level, large changes in the age structure can result from migration, which usually increases the number of men of working age. As a result of the action of these reasons, the edges of the age pyramid become uneven, they reflect historical changes in the nature of population growth and decline. Such violations leave traces for a long time in the age structure of the population.
An analysis of the age-sex pyramid makes it possible to characterize not only the demographic history of the state, but also to predict the demographic situation in the future.
Types of age-sex pyramids
Growing age-sex pyramid
- High fertility rate
- Most of the young
- Low proportion of elderly
- Short lifespan
- Young
- Population growth
- Given the age structure of large developing countries
Age-sex pyramid is reduced
- Low birth rate
- Low percentage of young
- A large proportion of adults and the elderly
- High life expectancy
- Population aging
- Population remained stable or declining
- Taking into account the age structure for the most developed countries
Age-sex pyramid rejuvenating
- typical of developed countries that experience higher fertility rates as a result
AGE PYRAMID (age pyramid, age-sex pyramid), a graphical representation of the distribution of people by age and gender. It is a two-sided directional chart in which the number of people of each age and gender, or their share in the population, is depicted by a horizontal bar of the same scale. The stripes are arranged one above the other in order of increasing age values, usually from 0 to 100 years old, on the left for men, on the right for women. Since, due to mortality, the number of people in older ages is usually less than in younger ones, the image for the full set of ages is in the shape of a pyramid.
The age pyramid is usually built on the basis of population censuses or surveys by annual or five-year age groups so that the area of the pyramid steps corresponds to the number of people of a given age and gender, or (in comparison) their share in the total population. At the same time, the length of the step corresponds to the density of the given age group, that is, the number of people per unit of age. If the initial data on the age structure are presented in unequal age intervals, then for larger groups the length of the steps of the age pyramid is determined by dividing the number of people in the group by the length of the interval, expressed in age units adopted for the entire age pyramid. If the older age group unites people, for example, 70 years and older, then it is considered that this interval extends up to 100 years, that is, it is equal to 30 years, but it does not represent the average density for every 5 years (as 1/6 of the sum of the numbers of people 70 years and older), and gradually decreasing to zero by the age of 100.
The age pyramid is useful in analyzing both the history of the population of a country and its regions, and in assessing their future demographic development. It is not for nothing that it was called "the chronicle of the natural movement of the population." In the age structure, changes in birth and death rates in the past can be traced, which is well illustrated by the unevenness of the edges of the pyramid (figure). The pyramid for 2005 clearly shows traces of a decrease in the number of births and an increase in the number of infant deaths during the 1st World War and the Civil War, during the famine of 1932-33, a sharp decline in the number of births during the Great Patriotic War and an "echo" of this decline after about 20 years. The consequences of the second "echo" of the war were exacerbated by the sharp decline in the birth rate in the 1990s. The scale of the military casualties of men is well, although incompletely, illustrated by the "preponderance of women" in the ages of 63-95. Other factors are also involved in the formation of these irregularities, although they are not always easy to distinguish. The appearance of the age pyramid of individual regions can, for example, be influenced by population migration. The narrowing of the bottom of the age pyramid indicates a very likely decline in fertility in the future.
One of the graphical methods, called the age-sex pyramid, is widely used to analyze the age, more precisely, the age-sex structure of the population. Age and sex pyramid is a two-sided bar chart plotted in a conventional coordinate system. On the ordinate, the scale of age groups is displayed in an arbitrary scale, on the abscissa - the population of a certain age. The male population is plotted to the left of the ordinate, the female population is to the right. Each age group is displayed as a horizontal bar, the area of which is proportional to the population of the corresponding age.
Age pyramids are built either in one-year age groups or in five-year age groups. Of course, one-year pyramids are preferable, they are much more expressive and informative than five-year ones (but taking into account the age accumulation).
Age pyramids are constructed using either absolute or relative data on the number of age groups. Absolute numbers are simply the arithmetic number of people in each age group. Age pyramids, built according to absolute data, have the serious disadvantage that they are incomparable if the population sizes that are reflected by these pyramids differ significantly from each other. Therefore, it is preferable to build age pyramids based on relative data. In this case, any population size is taken as one constant value, say 100, 1000, or 10,000 (the latter is most preferable), and the size of each age and sex group is divided by the total population and multiplied by the factor indicated above in the form of one with several zeros. Then we get pyramids that are comparable for any population, regardless of their size.
The diagram obtained in this way was at one time called a pyramid for the simple reason that, due to the influence of mortality, the number of persons in older ages is usually less than in younger ones. At present, in countries with low fertility, the shape of the population distribution by sex and age does not resemble a pyramid, but rather an inverted bin.
A sharp drop in the birth rate forms a corresponding depression in the age structure, which will be the deeper, the more significant the reduction in the number of births will be. And this depression will never even out, it will gap for a hundred years, until all those born in the years in which this depression fell die. On the contrary, a sharp increase in the birth rate forms a protrusion on the pyramid, which is the larger, the greater the increase in the birth rate (the number of births). The alternation of rises and falls in the birth rate as a result of any social cataclysms causes the so-called "demographic waves" on the age structure (pyramid), repeating with a lag of 20-30 years (when those born during one wave - recession or rise - become parents and their children create new waves that gradually fade over almost 100 years).
The age-sex pyramid also makes it possible to judge the influence of various historical events on the reproduction of the population: wars, epidemics, revolutions, certain legislative acts and other actions that can somehow affect the processes of fertility and mortality.
Back at the end of the 19th century. Swedish demographer A.-G. Sundberg (A.-G. Sundberg) introduced the concept of progressive, stationary and regressive types of age structure into scientific circulation. They were named so because with a progressive age structure, the population increases, and moreover, rather quickly, with a stationary - it does not change its number, and with a regressive one - it decreases.
They differ from each other in the proportion of children aged 0-15 and “old people” aged 50 and over. In the progressive age structure, the proportion of children is, according to Sundberg, 40%, and “old people” - 10%, in the stationary, respectively - 27 and 23, and in the regressive - 20 and 30%.
These types of age structure correspond to the types of age pyramids proposed in the 1930s. by the German statistician F. Burgdorfer. The progressive age structure (young population) corresponds to a regular pyramid. A chart depicting a stationary age structure resembles a bell. The regressive age structure corresponds to a figure called an urn.
The above can be illustrated by the example of the age-sex pyramids of the population of Russia.
1. The type of population reproduction, characterized by high fertility and mortality. The age pyramid of such a population has a wide base (which is formed by a high proportion of children in the population) and a narrow steeple-like top (a small proportion of those living to old age). The sides of such a pyramid look like concave parabolas. This type of population reproduction can be called “primitive” (in many respects, and not only demographic, this name is quite suitable for it). In our country, the primitive type of reproduction persisted until the Second World War.
2. The industrial and social development of society has among its results also a decrease in mortality and birth rates (the reasons for such changes are discussed in the relevant chapters). Population growth slows down and eventually stops. The age structure takes on the shape of a bell. This type can be called stationary, or stationary. Scientists argue about whether this type of reproduction can exist for a long time, or this state is possible only for a short time, followed by the inevitable transition to the third type of reproduction.
3. Further development, under certain conditions, leads to a state where the decline in mortality slows down or stops (mortality, alas, cannot decrease indefinitely), while the decline in fertility continues. Depopulation begins, the extinction of the population. The age structure takes the form of a burial urn. The population is aging, i.e. in its composition, the proportion of elderly people is increasing and the proportion of young people is decreasing. This type of population reproduction can be called regressive, or depopulation, or degradation.
Pyramids for 1939 (population census 1939), for 2000 (data of the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation) and for 2050 (UN forecast 1998, low variant). The first of these pyramids is a pyramid of a typical young, growing population with high fertility and relatively high but declining mortality. The length of the stripes decreases relatively evenly, however, deformations caused by the acute events of Russian history at the beginning of the 20th century are already noticeable on this pyramid. First of all, attention is drawn to the "pit" located in the age range from 15 to 25 years. This "pit" is the result of a decline in the birth rate during the First World War, the 1917 Revolution and the Civil War that followed. These events also left their mark on the population, which in 1939 passed the age of 35 (especially in the 35-39 age group). The rather sharp narrowing of the pyramid in these segments is a consequence of the population losses from military operations, epidemics and other unfavorable events of that time. The diagram also reflected the compensatory increase in the birth rate in the 1920s. (a protrusion at the age of 10-15 years), some of its growth due to the prohibition of abortion in 1936, as well as its sharp decline in the early 1930s. in general, the age-sex pyramid of 1939 is a portrait of a young population with a high birth rate and a high, but decreasing mortality rate.
A completely different picture emerges when looking at the age-sex pyramid in 2000. Traces of the decline in fertility in the early 1930s. and during the Great Patriotic War they moved to the upper segments of the pyramid and smoothed out to some extent. But on the other hand, the pyramid clearly reflects the evolution of the birth rate in Russia in the post-war period. This is the time of the modern demographic history of Russia, when the country lived in relatively "calm" conditions, without wars, massive repressions of epidemics and other catastrophic phenomena. Demographic changes in these years were of an evolutionary nature and were determined exclusively by the restructuring of demographic behavior.
It was during this period that the action of global factors unfolded “without hindrance,” which in their totality determined the inevitable offensive already in the 1990s. the demographic collapse experienced by our country. Four stages of the demographic evolution of Russia in the postwar years are clearly visible. The first of them is the time before the early 1960s, when the birth rate was practically stable, and fluctuations in the number of births were determined mainly by the influence of changes in the age structure of women of reproductive age. The need for children and the reproductive attitudes of the majority of the population were still relatively high during these years. Then, on the pyramid, a “pit” is clearly visible, falling on the period of a sharp drop in the number of births and fertility in the 1960s. The reason for this decline was a radical decrease in the needs of most families for children, which occurred against the background of a relative improvement in the standard of living of the population. The third stage is the 1970s - the first half of the 1980s. The number of births during this period grew mainly under the influence of shifts in the age structure of the population and, in part, more complete satisfaction of the need for two children (in the first half of the 1980s), which was reflected in the lengthening of the bars in the diagram corresponding to these years.
And finally, the lower part of the pyramid shows a sharp, landslide drop in the number of births and fertility, which began in 1987 and took place in the 1990s. catastrophic forms. The base of the pyramid tapers continuously. Its shape is becoming more and more similar to the type of pyramid corresponding to the regressive type of population reproduction. The age-sex pyramid of 2000 clearly testifies to the entry of our country into a period of deep and long-term depopulation, the way out of which is becoming more and more problematic.
We see before us an old and dying population, the shape of the age-sex pyramid of which really resembles a burial urn. At the same time, the authors of the forecast are in fact very optimistic in their predictions. They are based on overestimated future trends in fertility in Russia. According to the lower version of the forecast, the birth rate starting from 2000-2005. will be fixed at the level of 1.25 children per 1 woman of reproductive age and will remain so until the end of the forecast period, i.e. until 2050
For a visual and joint presentation of the age and sex structures of the population, the so-called. age-sex pyramids. The age-sex pyramid is a two-sided bar chart of the population by age, with the female population on one side (right) and the male population on the other (left). The vertical axis of the histogram is an age scale expressed in one- or five-year intervals, ranging from 0 years to the age limit or open age interval. And the total population of a given sex and age, or its share in the entire population or in the population of a given sex, is depicted in the form of horizontal stripes, the area of which (or length in the case of equal intervals) is proportional to the named indicators. For the purpose of comparing different populations and obtaining comparable information about their age structure, pyramids are built using the shares of the size of a given age-sex group in the entire population and taking the total population as 100, 1000, or 10,000.
The diagram obtained in this way was at one time called a pyramid for the simple reason that, due to the influence of mortality, the number of persons in older ages is usually less than in younger ones. At least, this was the case in the years when this tool was proposed for visualizing the age-sex structure of the population. At present, in countries with low fertility, the shape of the population distribution by sex and age does not at all resemble a pyramid, but rather some kind of inverted trash can.
The age-sex pyramid depicts the state of the population at any point in time (at the time of the census or on January 1), i.e. in fact, it is like a stop in the continuous process of population reproduction. Therefore, by the comparative length of the stripes, one can judge the influence of the processes of fertility and mortality on the age structure of the population (and over many decades), as well as on future trends in population reproduction and on possible prospects for changes in its size in the future. If, for example, in a certain year and period of time the number of births is noticeably different in one direction or another from the neighboring ones, then this will be reflected in the age-sex pyramid in the form of either a protrusion (if the number of births is greater than in neighboring years), or a failure (if this number is correspondingly less). And this deformation, passing through more and more older ages, will persist for almost a whole century, until this set of births dies out. And it will influence both demographic phenomena and phenomena of a completely different kind, changing in waves, for example, the number of births, mortality, demand for certain goods and services, etc. etc. The age-sex pyramid also makes it possible to judge the influence of various historical events on the reproduction of the population: wars, epidemics, revolutions, certain legislative acts and other actions that can somehow affect the processes of fertility and mortality.
The age-sex pyramid is similar to real pyramids, since with increasing age the number of people in age groups decreases and the stripes become shorter. The age structure of the ideal population, in which the birth rate and mortality rate would remain unchanged for a long time, would have the appearance of an almost isosceles triangle with rectilinear lateral sides (but still with some bias to the right, ie, towards the “female half”). However, this does not happen, because both the number of births and the number of deaths fluctuate over time, sometimes very sharply.
Borisov V.A., Delugrafiya: Textbook for universities. M., 1999.S. 88.
With the help of age-sex pyramids, other demographic and socio-economic phenomena can also be investigated. So, demographers build pyramids by gender, age and marital status. The economic-demographic age-sex pyramids are widely known, which are used to analyze economic activity by age and measure the balance of production and consumption by generations 28.
An important aspect of the use of age-sex pyramids is the analysis of the relationship between the age structure and population reproduction. The connection between the age structure and population reproduction was noticed relatively long ago. Back at the end of the 19th century. Swedish demographer A.G. Sundberg introduced the concept into scientific circulation progressive, stationary and regressive types of age structure. They were named so because, with a progressive age structure, the population increases and, moreover, rather quickly, with a stationary one, it does not change its number, and with a regressive one, it decreases.
They differ from each other in the proportion of children aged 0-15 and “old people” aged 50 and over. In the progressive age structure, the proportion of children is, according to Sundberg, 40%, and the “old” - 10%; in stationary, respectively, 27 and 23%, and in regressive - 20 and 30%).
These types of age structure correspond to the types of age pyramids proposed in the 30s. XX century. by the German statistician F. Burgdörfer. The progressive age structure (young population) corresponds to the correct pyramid; a chart depicting a stationary age structure resembles a bell; the regressive age structure is answered by a figure called (perhaps not without some irony) an urn. These figures are shown in fig. 3.1.
The above can be illustrated by the example of the age-sex pyramids of the population of Russia. Below (graphs 3.8 - 3.10) pyramids are shown for 1939 (population census 1939), for 1998 (estimated data) and for 2050 (UN forecast 1998, lower version). The first of these pyramids is a pyramid of a typical young, growing population with high fertility and relatively high but declining mortality. The length of the stripes decreases relatively evenly, however, deformations caused by the acute events of Russian history at the beginning of the 20th century are already noticeable on this pyramid. First of all, attention is drawn to the "pit" located in the age range from 15 to 25 years. This "pit" is the result of a decline in the birth rate during the First World War, the 1917 revolution and the civil war that followed. These events also left their mark on the population, which in 1939 crossed the age of 35 (especially in the 35-39 age group).
Rice. 3.1. Types of age structure according to F. Burgderfer 29
Chart 3.8
The age-lola pyramid of the population of Russia, 1939
The rather sharp narrowing of the pyramid in these segments is a consequence of the population losses from military operations, epidemics and other unfavorable events of that time. The diagram also reflects the compensatory increase in the birth rate in the 1920s. (a protrusion at the age of 10-15 years), some of its growth due to the ban on abortion in 1936, as well as its sharp drop in the early 30s, caused, no doubt, by those socio-economic and political events that took place in the country at that time.
On the pyramid of 1959, one can see deep dips in the numbers of births in 1916-1918. (World War I and Civil War), their slight increase in 1919 (it is still difficult to find an explanation), then growth until 1929 and a sharp decline in 1930-1935. ... Then the deepest failure in 1940-1944, i.e. during the years of the hardest war. It is important to pay attention to the still relatively wide and widening base of the pyramid, which indicates a relatively high birth rate in the country. ... It is easy to notice the numerical preponderance of women, especially over the age of 30. Unlike fertility, the fall of which manifests itself in the age structure in the form of depressions, mortality leaves a mark on the pyramid only in the form of gender disproportion and the general form of its configuration.
Borisov V.A. Demography: Textbook for universities. M., 1999.S. 92-93.
In general, the age-sex pyramid of 1939 is a portrait of a young, growing population with a high birth rate and a relatively high but declining mortality rate.
A completely different picture emerges when looking at the age-sex pyramid in 1998. Traces of the decline in fertility in the early 1930s. and during the Great Patriotic War they moved to the upper segments of the pyramid and smoothed out to some extent. But on the other hand, the pyramid clearly reflects the evolution of the birth rate in Russia in the post-war period. This is the time of the modern demographic history of Russia, when the country lived in relatively "calm" conditions, without wars, mass repressions, epidemics and other catastrophic phenomena. Demographic changes in these years were of an evolutionary nature and were determined exclusively by the restructuring of demographic behavior.
Age-sex pyramid of the population of Russia, 1998
Chart 3.9
It was during this period that “without hindrance” the action of global factors developed, which in their totality determined the inevitable offensive already in the 90s. the demographic collapse experienced by our country. Four stages of the demographic evolution of Russia in the postwar years are clearly visible. The first of them is the time before the early 1960s, when the birth rate was practically stable, and fluctuations in the number of births were determined mainly by the influence of changes in the age structure of women of reproductive age. The need for children and the reproductive attitudes of the majority of the population were still relatively high during these years. Then, on the pyramid, a "pit" is clearly visible, falling on the period of a sharp drop in the number of births and fertility in the 60s. The reason for this decline was a radical decrease in the needs of most families for children, which occurred against the background of a relative improvement in the standard of living of the population. The third stage is the 70s - the first half of the 80s. The number of births during this period grew, mainly under the influence of shifts in the age structure of the population and, in part, more complete satisfaction of the need for two children (in the first half of the 1980s), which was reflected in the lengthening of the bars in the diagram corresponding to these years.
And finally, the lower part of the pyramid shows a sharp, landslide drop in the number of births and fertility, which began in 1987 and took place in the 90s. catastrophic forms. The base of the pyramid tapers continuously. Its shape is becoming more and more similar to the type of pyramid corresponding to the regressive type of population reproduction. The age-sex pyramid of 1998 clearly testifies to the entry of our country into a period of deep and long-term depopulation, the way out of which is becoming more and more problematic. Further evolution of the reproduction of the population of our country in this direction will determine that its age-sex structure will acquire by the middle of the XXI century. the view shown in Graph 3.10, based on the 1998 UN forecast (lower case). We see before us an old and dying population, the shape of the age-sex pyramid of which really resembles a burial urn.
Chart 3.10
Age and sex structure of the population of Russia, 2050 T. UN forecast. Bottom option 30
At the same time, the authors of the forecast are in fact very optimistic in their predictions. They proceed from overestimated estimates of future fertility trends in Russia. According to the lower version of the forecast, starting from 2000-2005, the birth rate will be fixed at the level of 1.25 children per 1 woman of reproductive age and will remain so until the end of the forecast period, that is, until 2050. What is this forecast based on? completely incomprehensible and not commented on in any way.
The reality will be much more tragic if, of course, nothing is done to stop the decline in the birth rate and depopulation in our country.